The year 2024 has been politically exciting, with the biggest economies of the world, including India, going into the election mode to choose its next set of leaders. The UK government led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has also announced early election in Britain on July 4.
For weeks, it was expected the elections in the UK will be held sometime around September-October, giving Sunak at least two years in office and more opportunities to improve the economy.
Sunak had to hold the election before the end of January 2025. He had earlier said the vote would happen in the second half of the year, but the Thursday election came as a shock to many, including his MPs who are said to be annoyed at the prospect.
Why An Early Election
Sunak’s speech outside 10 Downing Street yesterday rested on the argument that only his party – the Conservative Party – can save Britain’s economy and lead the country through its most challenging time since the World War II.
The Prime Minister made the announcement as soon as the inflation rate eased, and he sniffed a chance to surprise the Labour Party, which had already made plans to allow some of its leaders to go on a summer holiday assuming that the elections would take place in autumn.
The inflation dropped 2.3% in April, prompting traders to withdraw its bets on interest rate cuts in June by the British central bank. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dipped to 3.9% in April from 4.2% in March.
Interestingly, this will be the country’s first July election since 1945 when Labour leader Clement Attlee won a majority of 145. Moreover, the campaign for the elections will be amid the Euro 2024 football tournament, while polling day will be just before the quarter finals.
Meanwhile, Sunak hopes that the element of surprise will serve as an advantage to the UK government. As The Telegraph reports, the logic in Number 10 was that, all things considered, July makes for the least bad option.
Also, the passing of Rwanda deportation scheme into a law shows that the Sunak government has some control over migration. The immigration policy proposed in 2022 by the British government identifies asylum seekers or illegal immigrants and relocates them to Rwanda for processing, asylum and resettlement.
Many also believe that one of the factors in pushing the polls forward is a massive spending commitment of £10 billion compensation package for infected blood scandal victims. Collecting money for the victims means, tax cuts in an autumn budget.
What’s Next?
Sunak has spoken to King Charles to dissolve Parliament on May 30. After that, there will be no MPs, and any parliamentary business that has not been completed before that day will be scrapped.
MPs will then begin campaigning door to door in all 650 constituencies. Some, including the ministers will also lead national campaigns. TV debates, which have been a feature of British politics since 2010, will be broadcast soon.
In the UK, a short campaign is the period between the day the election is announced and the polling day itself. It usually lasts for 25 working days.
The long campaign, however, is a period of time when a party plans an election.
Most opinion polls predict a massive drubbing for Sunak, and a comfortable win for the Labour. In which case, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer will become the Prime Minister.
The YouGov/Times voting intention poll has the Conservatives on 20% and Labour on 47%, while an average of major polls collated by The Economist gives Labour a 23-point lead.
The Conservative government has been in power since 2010, though this also includes a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015. David Cameron led a Conservative government without the Liberal Democrats between 2015 and 2016, when he resigned in the wake of the Brexit vote.
Since then, the UK had seen four prime ministers – Theresa May (2016-2019), Boris Johnson (2019-2022), Liz Truss (for 49 days in 2022) and Rishi Sunak (since October 2022).
Voters across the United Kingdom will choose all 650 members of the House of Commons for a term of up to five years. The party that commands a majority in the Commons, either alone or in coalition, will form the next government and its leader will be prime minister.
What’s the Thursday Election Tradition?
There is no actual law mandating a Thursday election, but this has been a custom for several decades now. The last general election in the UK that was not held on a Thursday took place on a Tuesday in October 1931.
In November 1922, the polling day was a Wednesday, in December 1923, it was a Thursday.
In October 1924, it was back to Wednesday, and then it was on a Thursday in May 1929.
In 1935, the election was held on a Thursday, and it has been that way ever since.
It became a cultural and social thing to hold elections on Thursday to avoid overlap with paydays on Fridays or religious activities on Sundays. Holding an election mid-week could keep voters away from the pubs or churches.
In the past, Thursdays were market days, which meant more people were out and therefore likely to vote, as per The Independent.
Thursday also means smooth transition of power from next week since ballot counting and results would be typically declared on a Friday morning. The prime minister would get the entire weekend to choose his cabinet, settle into Downing Street and prepare a brief for civil servants by Monday.