China had launched military drills around Taiwan last week, as “punishment” exercises in response to “separatist acts” by new Taiwanese President Lai Chang-te, who urged Beijing to stop its threats. This development has brought the spotlight back on the tense relations between the two countries.
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be part of the country. But many Taiwanese consider themselves part of a separate nation – most are in favour of maintaining status quo where Taiwan neither declares independence from China nor unites with it.
What is the History of China and Taiwan?
Taiwan’s first settlers believed to have come from modern day southern China. Taiwan was administered by China’s Qing dynasty, before it was ceded to Tokyo after Japan won the First Sino-Japanese War.
After World War 2, Japan relinquished the territory of Taiwan. Later, it was occupied by the Republic of China (ROC), which began ruling with the consent of the US and UK, and has been governed by it since 1949.
Following the death of Chinese leader Chiang Kai-shek who ruled Taiwan until 1980s, Taiwan began a transition to democracy and held its first elections in 1996.
What Are China’s Claims?
Beijing believes in one-China principle, of which Taiwan is apart. Beijing claims that Taiwan is bound by an understanding known as the 1992 Consensus, which was reached between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Kuomintang (KMT) party that ruled Taiwan. However, the two sides don’t agree with the content of the consensus.
For the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as Chinese President Xi Jinping stated, the 1992 Consensus reflects an agreement that the “two sides of the strait belong to one China and would work together to seek national reunification”.
Taiwan’s KMT-drafted constitution continues to recognise China, Mongolia, Taiwan, Tibet and the South China Sea as part of the Republic of China (ROC). The KMT does not support Taiwan’s independence, and seeks closer ties with Beijing.
In his 2019 speech, Xi Jinping reiterated China’s long-standing proposal for incorporating Taiwan into the mainland under the formula of “one country, two systems”. The same formula was used for Hong Kong.
What is Taiwan Saying?
Former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, who refused to accept the 1992 Consensus, attempted to find another formula that would be acceptable to China.
In her inaugural speech, she said she was “elected president in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China”, which is a One China document. But China rejected the formulation and severed official contacts with Taiwan.
Now, the current Taiwanese President and Tsai’s successor Lai Chang-te has called for reopening of dialogue with China to “replace confrontation” during his 2024 victory speech, and pledged to maintain the “cross-strait status quo”.
Who Recognises Taiwan?
In 1971, the UN switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing. After China began opening up its economy in 1978, the US recognised opportunities for trade and the need to develop relations. It formally established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979.
Since then the number of countries that recognise the ROC government has fallen, with only 12 countries recognising Taiwan today.
In March 2023, Honduras severed ties with Taiwan and established relations with China, and in January 2024, just days after Taiwan’s presidential election, so did the Pacific Island nation of Nauru.
China rejects Taiwan’s participation as a member in UN agencies and other international organisations that limit membership to states. It has also exerted diplomatic pressure not to recognise Taiwan.
How is US Involved?
The US has struck a balance between China and Taiwan, by recognising the former as the only government under its ‘One China Policy’ and also supporting Taiwan.
As per the Council on Foreign Relations, the US approach is governed by several documents such as three US-China communiqués reached in 1972, 1978, and 1982; the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress in 1979; and the declassified “Six Assurances” [PDF], which President Ronald Reagan conveyed to Taiwan in 1982. Under these, the US:
• “acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China” and that the PRC is the “sole legal government of China” (some U.S. officials have emphasized that the use of the word “acknowledge” implies that the United States doesn’t necessarily accept the Chinese position);
• rejects any use of force to settle the dispute;
• maintains cultural, commercial, and other ties with Taiwan, carried out through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT);
• commits to selling arms to Taiwan for self-defense; and
• will maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defense, while not actually committing to doing so—a policy known as strategic ambiguity.
But Joe Biden has rejected these documents, and said the US military would defend Taiwan and provide defensive weapons to it.
Beijing has repeatedly urged Washington to stop selling weapons to Taiwan and cease contact with Taipei.
Will There Be Cold War Over Taiwan?
The US has already said it was “deeply concerned” over China’s latest military drills in the Taiwan Strait, and has asked it to act with restraint.
“Using a normal, routine, and democratic transition as an excuse for military provocations risks escalation and erodes longstanding norms that for decades have maintained peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” the State Department said in a statement.
China’s assertiveness and deterioration in cross-strait ties could spark a conflict between Washington and Beijing, but there is no likelihood of Chinese invasion, as per experts.
Reports also suggest that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could embolden China to make a similar move in Taiwan, but Beijing is most likely to examine from Moscow’s failures and “adapt their operational plans to avoid making similar mistakes”, as mentioned in a report by the Council of Foreign Relations.
Even though Taiwan has increased defense spending, with a record budget of more than $19 billion for 2023, China’s defense spending is still estimated to be around 12 times the size of Taiwan’s. In 2022, Taiwanese lawmakers approved plans to spend an extra $8.6 billion on defense over the next five years.